AGP Executive Report

Rogun Dam Watch: The EU is set to become a major funder of Tajikistan’s Rogun megaproject, as Russia’s influence in Central Asia faces pressure—while the dam’s scale and power ambitions keep it at the center of regional energy and water debates. Salinization Risk: A water expert warns that saltwater intrusion and salinization can undermine irrigation, threaten food security, and drive migration pressures in vulnerable regions. Glacier Monitoring Push: Central Asian experts met in Dushanbe to strengthen scientific approaches to glacier monitoring and cryosphere modeling, aiming to improve water forecasting as climate change accelerates. Women and Water Diplomacy: Dushanbe hosted the “Women and Water 2026” forum and related meetings of women parliamentarians, focusing on gender-sensitive water governance, climate resilience, and glacier conservation. Pasture Restoration in Khatlon: Monitoring in Khatlon’s Shahritus, Qubodiyon, and Nosiri Khusrav found improved pasture productivity tied to rotational grazing, fenced restoration, and pasture user unions. Waste-to-Energy for Dushanbe: Tajikistan is considering a modern waste-to-energy plant with Chinese partners to cut landfill volumes, improve sanitation, and add electricity capacity. Energy Transition Framed as Development: Tajik officials say renewable hydropower is the backbone of the national energy transition and a key condition for security and growth. Water Cooperation Beyond Borders: Tajikistan also discussed water management and dam cooperation with Libya, reinforcing the push for integrated transboundary water solutions.

Glacier Crisis: A new international study warns Central Asia’s glaciers suffered their worst mass-loss year on record in 2025, shedding about 30 cubic kilometers of ice and threatening freshwater supplies for millions across the Pamir and Tian Shan. Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: A three-day seminar on building trust through shared waters wrapped up in Dushanbe, feeding into the 4th Water for Sustainable Development conference. Women Lead Water Policy: In Dushanbe, women parliamentarians and the “Women and Water 2026” forum pushed gender-responsive water governance and climate resilience, linking inclusive decision-making to stronger transboundary cooperation. Tajikistan Waste-to-Energy: Dushanbe is considering a modern waste-to-energy facility with Chinese partners to cut landfill pressure, improve sanitation, and add electricity generation. Energy Transition: Tajik officials say renewable hydropower underpins the national development strategy, with energy transition framed as both climate action and energy security. Khatlon Pasture Recovery: Monitoring in Khatlon found improved pasture productivity after landscape restoration, rotational grazing, and pasture user unions. GEF Accountability Push: Delegates at the GEF council meeting urged stronger safeguards so local communities and smaller agencies aren’t left behind as environmental funding scales up. Regional Water Tensions: Kyrgyzstan called for compensation mechanisms for shared water infrastructure as glacier melt accelerates and water stress grows.

Glaciers Under Pressure: A new study warns Central Asia’s glaciers hit their worst year on record in 2025, with about 30 cubic kilometers of ice lost—nearly 2% of remaining volume—threatening freshwater for millions in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and beyond. Dushanbe Water Diplomacy: At Tajikistan’s Dushanbe Water Conference, officials pushed for stronger transboundary cooperation, faster implementation, and practical climate-resilient solutions as water stress increasingly spills into regional security. Tajikistan–China Green Push: Tajik FM Sirojiddin Muhriddin says Tajikistan and China are expanding joint work on glacier preservation, biodiversity, water conservation and “green energy,” including renewable power and disaster monitoring. Waste-to-Energy Talks: Tajikistan and Chinese partners discussed a waste-to-energy project aimed at cutting municipal waste, improving environmental conditions and boosting electricity generation. Kyrgyzstan’s Water Cost Debate: Kyrgyz water officials argued for mutually beneficial compensation mechanisms, saying upstream glacier melt and shrinking supplies are now a shared Central Asian challenge. Locust Threat: A locust surge in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan—linked to hotter, more erratic conditions—highlights rising climate-driven risks to regional food security. Water Meets the Digital Economy: Indonesia warned that AI, data centers and digital industries are driving huge water demand, calling it a looming global water-security crisis.

Glacier Alarm for Central Asia: A new study warns 2025 brought the worst glacier mass loss on record, with Central Asia losing about 30 cubic kilometers of ice—threatening freshwater for millions and worsening the regional climate crisis. Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: At Tajikistan’s high-level “Water for Sustainable Development” conference, officials pushed for faster transboundary cooperation, more investment, and practical delivery—while Kyrgyzstan raised concerns that upstream countries need fair compensation for maintaining reservoirs and water ecosystems. Tajikistan–China Green Push: Tajik FM Sirojiddin Muhriddin says cooperation is expanding on glacier preservation, biodiversity, water conservation, and green energy, including joint science work and disaster monitoring. Waste-to-Energy Plans: Tajikistan and Chinese partners discussed a project to cut municipal waste, modernize processing, and boost electricity generation. Transboundary Water Funding Debate: Kyrgyzstan called for mutually beneficial compensation mechanisms as glacier melt accelerates and water resources decline across the region. Locust Threat to Food Security: A locust swarm in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan is intensifying, with farmers racing to protect crops as climate-linked pest outbreaks grow.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: The 4th High-Level International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development” (2018–2028) wrapped in Tajikistan with calls for stronger cooperation, faster implementation, and more investment to tackle rising water stress. Climate Resilience Research: A CAREC-linked ADB webinar highlighted how rainfall shortages and other climate shocks are hitting household incomes and food security across Central Asia, with a focus on vulnerable groups and the gap between research and practical solutions. Transboundary Water Tensions: Kyrgyzstan urged compensation mechanisms to help fund reservoir upkeep and glacier protection, arguing upstream costs are shared regionally. Glacier Alarm for Central Asia: New research warns 2025 brought the worst glacier mass loss on record, threatening freshwater supplies for millions and worsening the regional climate crisis. Waste and Methane Monitoring: CAREC presented WasteMAP, a satellite-based tool to track methane emissions from landfills and turn environmental data into climate policy. Digital Economy Water Pressure: Indonesia warned that AI, data centers, and digital infrastructure are consuming vast water resources, potentially turning water security into a new global crisis. Tajikistan’s Energy Push: A feature on the Rogun Dam framed the project as a “life or death” bid to reduce winter power shortages and improve long-term water-and-energy security.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: Tajikistan hosted the 4th International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development” (2018–2028), with UN envoy Retno Marsudi stressing that no country can solve water challenges alone and calling for faster, practical cooperation and investment. Glacier Melt Alarm: A new study warns Central Asia’s glaciers saw their worst mass-loss year on record in 2025, losing about 30 cubic kilometers of ice, threatening freshwater supplies for millions in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Transboundary Water Tensions: Speakers at the forum flagged rising risks of “water aggression” and unilateral moves, with Pakistan’s climate minister Musadik Malik urging India to respect the Indus Waters Treaty and warning that weakening agreements harms downstream rights. Upstream Costs, Downstream Benefits: Kyrgyz officials called for compensation mechanisms to help fund reservoir upkeep and glacier protection, arguing upstream countries carry major costs for water used downstream. Waste and Methane Monitoring: CAREC presented WasteMAP, a satellite-based tool to track methane emissions from landfills and turn data into climate policy. Digital Economy Water Footprint: Indonesia warned that AI, data centers and digital infrastructure are driving billions of liters of water use daily, potentially turning water stress into the next major crisis. Local Climate Impacts Research: A regional webinar highlighted how rainfall shortages and climate shocks hit household incomes and food security, especially for low-income and female-headed families.

Glacier Crisis: A new study warns Central Asia saw its worst glacier mass-loss year on record in 2025, losing about 30 cubic kilometers of ice and threatening freshwater for millions in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Water Diplomacy: At Dushanbe’s Water for Sustainable Development conference, officials pushed practical steps for transboundary cooperation, including resilience for river basins and better coordination on water releases. Upstream-Downstream Tensions: Kyrgyzstan urged compensation mechanisms for maintaining reservoirs and glacier ecosystems that downstream countries rely on, as talks also highlighted friction over who pays for infrastructure. Waste and Methane Monitoring: CAREC brought WasteMAP to a regional parliamentary seminar, using satellite tools to track landfill methane and turn data into climate policy. Digital Water Pressure: Indonesia warned that AI, data centers and digital industries are driving huge water demand, urging stronger global governance to prevent a new water crisis. Rogun Dam Spotlight: A feature on the Rogun Dam frames it as Tajikistan’s “life or death” energy dream, tied to winter shortages and future power exports.

Glacier Crisis in Central Asia: A new international study says 2025 brought the “most extreme mass-loss year on record,” with Central Asia losing about 30 cubic kilometers of ice—threatening freshwater for millions in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and worsening the regional climate emergency. Dushanbe Water Talks: At the 4th High-Level International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development” in Dushanbe, Central Asian leaders traded both cooperation wins and hard warnings, including Kyrgyzstan’s push for compensation for reservoir upkeep and glacier protection. Treaty Pressure and “Water Aggression”: Pakistan’s climate minister Musadik Malik urged stronger global protections for shared rivers, warning against unilateral moves that could weaken the Indus Waters Treaty and “weaponize” water. Water Security Meets New Risks: Indonesia warned that the digital economy—AI infrastructure, data centers and mining for devices—could drive huge water demand, turning water security into a growing geopolitical risk. Regional Cooperation on Water: Turkmenistan’s delegation joined the Dushanbe conference, stressing fair, science-based transboundary water management under international law and UN coordination.

Dushanbe Water Summit: Tajikistan’s 4th High-Level International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development” (May 25–28) put water stress squarely into the regional security spotlight, with leaders backing new cooperation on reservoir releases and glacier protection while warning that water disputes can escalate if trust and funding lag. Treaty Clash: Pakistan’s climate minister Musadik Malik and others urged India to respect the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, calling “water aggression” and unilateral moves a dangerous precedent for downstream rights. Glacier & Infrastructure Costs: Kyrgyz officials pushed for compensation mechanisms to help pay for maintaining reservoirs, hydraulic systems, and glacier ecosystems that supply neighbors. Clean Water Targets: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon said the country aims to reach 90% centralized water supply access by 2040, narrowing the urban-rural gap. Digital Economy Pressure: Indonesia warned that AI, data centers, and digital mining are driving billions of liters of daily water demand, potentially turning water into the next major crisis. Regional Water Action: UN-backed calls for stronger global cooperation and practical, scaled solutions dominated sessions, with Tajikistan positioning itself as a hub for water diplomacy.

Dushanbe Water Talks: Tajikistan’s climate minister Musadik Malik warned that “water aggression” and any unilateral move to weaken transboundary water treaties could jeopardize downstream rights, urging India to respect the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and honor mediation mechanisms. Water for Sustainable Development: Tajik FM Sirojiddin Muhriddin said Dushanbe is becoming a global platform for water dialogue as the UN-backed conference runs May 25–28, pushing action on clean water, sanitation, glacier protection, and the 2030 goals. Clean Water Infrastructure: President Emomali Rahmon outlined a long-term plan to reach at least 90% centralized water supply access by 2040, aiming to cut urban-rural gaps and improve service quality. Glacier Costs, Fair Compensation: Kyrgyz officials called for compensation mechanisms to fund glacier preservation and water infrastructure, saying the country bears major costs while most water benefits downstream neighbors. Regional Water Diplomacy: Pakistan also urged India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty, warning that politicizing shared rivers sets a dangerous precedent for global water security.

Transboundary Water Diplomacy: Tajikistan’s climate minister Musadik Malik warned at Dushanbe’s UN-backed water forum that “water aggression” and any unilateral move to weaken treaties could strip downstream countries of their lawful rights, urging India to respect the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and keep dispute mechanisms on track. Global Water Action at Dushanbe: Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin pushed delegates to accelerate “Water for Sustainable Development” goals, calling Dushanbe a growing platform for water dialogue ahead of the 2026 UN Water Conference. Glacier and Ecosystem Costs: Kyrgyzstan called for compensation mechanisms to help cover glacier preservation and water-infrastructure upkeep, saying it invests heavily while most water benefits flow downstream. Regional Water Security Planning: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon outlined a drive to expand centralized water supply to 90% of the population by 2040 and proposed a “Dushanbe Water Framework” to strengthen cooperation. Water Infrastructure and Investment: EBRD talks in Dushanbe focused on modernizing Tajikistan’s Qairokkum hydropower plant and cutting electricity losses, linking water and energy resilience. Water for Farmers: Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan agreed a summer operating schedule for the Bakhri-Tochik reservoir to secure irrigation deliveries during peak growing months.

Water Diplomacy Clash: At Dushanbe’s UN-backed water summit, Pakistan’s climate minister Musadik Malik warned against “water aggression,” accusing India of politicising shared rivers and urging it to respect the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty and international mediation—saying unilateral suspension would set a “dangerous precedent” for downstream rights. Tajikistan’s Water Push: Tajik President Emomali Rahmon used the same forum to call for stronger global cooperation, proposing a “Dushanbe Water Framework” and aiming for 90% of Tajikistan’s population to have centralized water supply by 2040. Regional Water Moves: Elsewhere in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan agreed a summer operating schedule for the Bakhri-Tochik reservoir to protect irrigation deliveries for farmers. Beyond Water: The week’s coverage also included a guilty plea in the UK over a deadly English Channel crossing, and rising Middle East ceasefire tensions as Israel escalated attacks in southern Lebanon.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: Tajikistan’s 4th High-Level International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development 2018–2028” is underway (May 25–28), with President Emomali Rahmon pushing a new “Dushanbe Water Framework” and calling for stronger trust and partnerships on transboundary water. Water Security Clash: Pakistan used the same forum to urge India to respect the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, warning that any move to suspend it would set a “dangerous precedent,” while Pakistan’s climate minister also condemned “water aggression.” Regional Coordination: Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan agreed a summer operating schedule for the Bakhri-Tochik reservoir to stabilize irrigation deliveries for farmers. Energy-Water Link: Tajikistan and the EBRD discussed modernizing the Qairokkum hydropower plant and cutting electricity losses in Khatlon. Bilateral Boost: Bahrain and Tajikistan reaffirmed cooperation on water, climate, trade and investment on the conference sidelines.

Water Diplomacy in Motion: Dushanbe kicked off the Asia-Pacific Regional Preparatory Meeting for the 2026 UN Water Conference, running alongside Tajikistan’s 4th High-Level International Conference on the UN Water Action Decade (May 25–28). More than 100 participants gathered to push regional solutions as Asia-Pacific faces acute water pressures, with Tajik officials saying the meeting’s outcomes will feed directly into the Dushanbe water agenda and the global summit. Regional Resilience: The same week also spotlights disaster readiness, with Kazakhstan rescuers arriving for cross-border drills in Tajikistan focused on earthquakes and climate-linked risks. Local Climate Pressure: Tajikistan continues to frame glacier loss and water scarcity as urgent diplomatic priorities, while UN cooperation remains central to the run-up to the conference. Trade Reform Backdrop: Beyond water, Tajikistan was ranked among the top three trade reformers in Europe and Central Asia for 2022–2024, citing digital trade steps and fewer paper barriers.

Water Diplomacy in Motion: Tajikistan is hosting the 4th High-Level International Conference on “Water for Sustainable Development” (May 25–28) in Dushanbe, with UN leaders in town and water security pushed to the front of the regional agenda. UN Water Process: The Asia-Pacific UN Water preparatory meeting is also underway, aiming to shape the region’s input for the 2026 UN Water Conference. Climate Risk Focus: Tajik officials and partners are tying glacier loss and water stress to practical cooperation, while Kazakhstan rescuers have arrived for cross-border disaster drills. Trade Reform: Tajikistan ranks among the top trade reformers in Europe and Central Asia, praised for digitalizing trade procedures and cutting paper barriers. Local Economy Hit: A Tajik-Iranian waste recycling plant in Sughd has been put on hold after Iranian investors couldn’t travel. Regional Context: The week also highlighted Tajikistan’s push to keep water and climate on the international agenda—again and again.

Water Diplomacy in Dushanbe: Tajikistan is gearing up for the 4th High-Level International Conference on the UN Water Action Decade (May 25–28), with Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin warning that floods, droughts, pollution, and fast glacier melt are turning water cooperation into a security and development priority. Glacier Pressure: The same urgency is echoed by research highlighting how glaciers across the region are shrinking fast, reinforcing why Tajikistan is pushing the issue onto the global agenda. Regional Coordination: Beyond Dushanbe, CIS leaders are meeting in Ashgabat to advance digitalization and transport integration, including a CIS geospatial data portal meant to link government and business planning. Local Climate Work: In Uzbekistan’s Zarafshan basin, the 5th River Basin Council meeting brought partners and Tajik representatives into practical water-management discussions. Green Focus: Separately, Central Asia’s snow leopard protection efforts continue to gain visibility, using the species as a rallying symbol for conservation.